EUR/USD: dollar resumes advance

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2374

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Market players decided it was enough and returned to the greenback, as the American currency closed the day higher against all of its major rivals. During the European session, the second allotment of the targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO) came in at 129.84 billion euros missing expectations of 130/40 billion euros, and keeping pressure on the Central Bank to ease its monetary policy next year. The EUR/USD pair eased from a fresh weekly high of 1.2494, but finally capitulated after US data surprised to the upside. November retail sales came in stronger than expected, at 0.7% whilst October’s retail sales were revised upward to 0.5%. A separated report showed continued improvement in the jobs market: New jobless claims fell last week to below 294K, back below the 300,000 mark.

The EUR/USD pair 1 hour chart shows price trading near its daily low around 1.2371, with the price extending below a bearish 20 SMA and indicators heading strongly south below their midlines. Momentum has attempted to correct higher but turned again south, while RSI maintains the bearish slope around 39. In the 4 hours chart the price is now extending below its 20 SMA that maintains a bullish tone, while indicators turned lower approaching now their midlines. Further declines below 1.2360 immediate intraday support, should anticipated a continued slide towards 1.2270 price zone.

Support levels: 1.2360 1.2325 1.2270

Resistance levels: 1.2400 1.2450 1.2490

EUR/JPY Current price: 147.90

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Stocks recovered strongly across the world, paring early week losses and pressuring the Japanese yen against its rivals. The EUR/JPY cross surged up to 148.05 but closed the day a few pips below the figure. The 1 hour chart shows 100 SMA capped the upside around the mentioned daily high, quite close to 200 SMA a few pips below it and reinforcing the intraday resistances’ strength. Indicators in the same time frame are losing their upward strength but well into positive territory, keeping the risk to the upside. In the 4 hours chart indicators recovered from oversold levels reached earlier on the week, heading higher near their midlines, not giving clear signs of an upward continuation still. A steadier recovery above 148.20 is required to confirm further advances, eyeing the 148.80 price zone as next probable bullish target while a break below 147.50 on the other hand, will turn the risk back to the downside.

Support levels: 147.50 147.10 146.60

Resistance levels: 148.20 148.80 149.45

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5703

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The GBP/USD pair has shown little progress over the last 24 hours, closing again around the 1.5700 mark. Earlier on the day, the BOE published an independent report by former Federal Reserve Board Governor Kevin Warsh, announcing a series of significant transparency, accountability and governance enhancements which includes publishing minutes of its debates alongside its decisions, rather than wait nearly two weeks as it does now. This change would come into effect in August 2015. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows price moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA while indicators lose upward strength right around their midlines and turn back lower. Earlier on the day, the pair found sellers at 1.5765, fresh weekly high. In the 4 hours chart price holds above its 20 SMA while indicators stand directionless above their midlines, giving little clues on upcoming direction.

Support levels: 1.5680 1.5650 1.5615

Resistance levels: 1.5720 1.5765 1.5800

USD/JPY Current price: 119.54

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The USD/JPY buyers finally reappeared with the USD/JPY up after 3-days of steady declines, boosted by strong US data and recovering stocks. Ahead of Sunday elections, the PM Shinzo Abe Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito will likely secure 317 of the 475 seats, giving them the majority they need in the powerful lower chamber to force through legislation, a poll published by an Asian newspaper said. The USD/JPY pair recovered well into the 119.00 mark trading at its daily highs by US close above 119.50. The 1 hour chart shows indicators aiming higher near overbought territory, and the price approaching its 100 and 200 SMAs, both a few pips above current level, with the shortest acting as immediate resistance at 119.80. In the 4 hours chart indicators bounced sharply from extreme oversold readings, and are about to cross their midlines to the upside, suggesting further advances ahead, eyeing now a recovery above the 120.00 level.

Support levels: 119.30 118.70 117.90

Resistance levels:  119.80 120.25 120.60

AUD/USD Current price: 0.8255

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Australian dollar traded quite choppy on Thursday against its major rivals, starting with a weak tone on lower-than-expected Consumer inflation expectations, picking up on improved employment figures, to finally sink on RBA Governor Stevens’ words. The head of the Australian Central Bank pledged for an AUD/USD at 0.7500 adding that rate cuts need to be delivered in a way that boost confidence rather expose the economic problems, in an interview with The Australian Financial Review. His remark sent AUD/USD pair down to 0.8214 levels not seen since June 2010. In its 1 hour chart, the price stands below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators head lower near oversold levels, supporting some further declines. In the 4 hours chart the price has been capped by a bearish 20 SMA during the last two sessions, while indicators are crossing their midlines to the downside, also anticipating fresh lows ahead if 0.8215 support gives up.

Support levels:  0.8215 0.8180 0.8145

Resistance levels: 0.8280 0.8330 0.8370