EUR/USD: too far, too fast?

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1842

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1801 this Wednesday, and bounced slightly after the release of the latest FOMC Minutes, showing that  a rate like is unlikely at least for the next couple of meetings, and that the net effect of oil price prices decline is likely positive for the economy. Overall, the US Central Bank stance resulted mild dovish, with some officers expressing concerns over wages and global slowdown. Nevertheless, the US is in far better shape than Europe, as an early report showed the common area is in deflation with consumer prices down -0.2% yearly basis in December, while US ADP survey expects 241K new jobs added last December, and local deficit shrank to 39B.

The dollar however, has gone too far too fast on bets the FED will be rising its benchmark as soon as this 2015, and risk of a downside corrective movement has become high. Short term the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows that the price pressures from below its 20 SMA, offering immediate resistance a few pips above current price, whilst indicators aim higher still below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart the 20 SMA stands at 1.1945 offering intraday resistance in case of further recoveries, albeit indicators maintain the bearish tone with RSI in oversold territory, not yet suggesting a firmer advance.

Support levels: 1.1820 1.1790 1.1745

Resistance levels: 1.1865 1.1900 1.1950

EUR/JPY Current price: 141.09

View Live Chart for the EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY has shown little progress this Wednesday, with the pair trading steady around the 141.00 level on EUR self weakness. The Japanese yen eased against most of its rivals as stocks turned into the green daily basis, but the EUR/JPY was unable to advance beyond the 141.60 price zone. Technically and in the short term, the pair presents a mild bearish tone as per the 1 hour chart showing indicators turning lower below their midlines and 100 and 200 SMAs accelerating south well above current price. In the 4 hours chart RSI retraces after briefly testing the 30 level, turning south in oversold territory whilst momentum remains well below 100, all of which limits the upside.

Support levels: 140.85 140.40 139.75

Resistance levels: 141.50 142.40 142.60

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5122

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD
The GPB/USD pair bounced from a daily low of 1.5054, but remains below its daily opening of 1.5150, the immediate short term resistance. With no catalyst behind the latest decline, the pair has accumulated over 500 pips to the downside in the last 4 trading days, and a corrective movement seems likely, particularly if its managed to advance above the mentioned 1.5150 level. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is about to cross above its 20 SMA, whilst indicators bounced sharply and approach their midlines, still below them. In the 4 hours chart momentum also heads strongly up below 100, whilst RSI remains at 24, suggesting recoveries, if happen, will remain short lived unless the rally extends strongly above the 1.5200 level.

Support levels: 1.5080 1.5040 1.5000

Resistance levels: 1.5125 1.5160 1.5210

USD/JPY Current price: 118.92

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY
A early recovery in the USD/JPY stalled at 119.65, with the pair now retracing amid dovish FOMC Minutes, mostly weighted by a drop in US yields, down to 1.94%. The 1 hour chart shows that the pair retraced from its 100 SMA usually a strong dynamic intraday support that stands a few pips above an also strong Fibonacci level, whilst indicators turned lower, confirming a top and approaching their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical readings turned lower below their midlines following an upward correction from oversold territory, keeping the risk to the downside. Short term buying interest has surged intraday on approaches to the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily bullish run at 118.80, now the level to break to confirm a stronger decline for the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 118.80 118.30 117.90

Resistance levels: 119.20 119.60 120.00

AUD/USD Current price: 0.8074

View Live Chart of the AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair extended its decline to a fresh multi year low of 0.8032, a couple of pips below December one, before bouncing on FED’s news. The pair however stalled and retraced from a daily high of 0.8089 posted in the American afternoon, showing little aims to extend its advance at the time being. The 1 hour chart shows indicators lost upward momentum right after crossing their midlines to the upside, whilst the price stands a few pips above a flat 20 SMA. In The 4 hours chart the price was rejected from a bearish 20 SMA offering dynamic resistance at 0.8090, whilst momentum retraced from 100 and RSI remains in neutral territory, all of which maintains the risk to the downside, particularly if the price approaches again to the 0.8030 level.

Support levels: 0.8035 0.7990 0.7960

Resistance levels: 0.8090 0.8125 0.8150