Technical Analysis : EUR/USD stubbornly flat

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2475


The EUR/USD pair remains stubbornly flat, trading within a narrow range for fourth day in a row. In fact, ever since the week started the pair has moved half its average amount of pips, measuring between the low and the high barely 110 pips. A light calendar following all the excitement triggered by the ECB and US employment data late last week may be one of the reasons of the ongoing uncertainty in the pair, but for the most, it seems a pause in its downward ride: it may end up either resuming, or triggering a stronger upward correction, but that’s something yet to be seen.

Upcoming Friday European session will see the release of EZ inflation, and GDP readings for most of the Euro area major economies, including EZ one. Those numbers can only be a market trigger if the results diverge strongly from the expected ones, either up or down. In the meantime, the short term picture for the pair remains neutral, with price slightly above its moving averages that anyway converge in a tight range, according to the 1 hour chart, where indicators also stand in neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart a mild positive tone comes from technical readings albeit showing no momentum. Only above 1.2520 the pair may gain it, and attempt a run higher in the last day of the week.

Support levels: 1.2440 1.2400 1.2370

Resistance levels: 1.2490 1.2520 1.2550

EUR/JPY Current price: 144.30

Once again, US stocks gave little clues to yen traders’, as the main world indexes remained in tight ranges, but managed anyway to advance intraday to fresh all time highs, limiting the downside in yen crosses. US yields ticked higher, with a 30Y auction ending at 3.092%, nothing outstanding but still dollar positive and therefore yen negative. As for the EUR/JPY cross the 1 hour chart shows little changed from previous updates, with price holding above flat moving averages, and indicators directionless in positive territory. Anyway the pair managed to erase its latest intraday losses, trading near the multi-month high of 144.69 reached on Wednesday. In the 4 hours chart momentum diverges lower but holds above its midline, whilst RSI aims higher around 65. Despite the lack of technical signals, the upside continues to be favored, with some further gains above 144.70 required now to see a quick test of 145.12, this year high, followed then by 145.70 area, December 2013 monthly high.

Support levels: 144.00 143.45 143.00

Resistance levels: 144.70 145.15 145.70

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5708

Slowly but steadily, Cable tumbled down to 1.5693, level not seen since September 2013. With no UK data to drive the pair, market players continued pricing in latest BOE’s inflation report which said the Central Bank expects inflation moving back to normal in 3 years diminishing chances of a rate hike in the near term. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows price accelerated below its 20 SMA with indicators heading strongly south below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA gains bearish slope above current slide while indicators also head strongly south in negative territory. So far, pullbacks had been extremely shallow, with the pair entering Asian session barely above the 1.5700 mark. Some profit taking on Friday can see the pair bouncing late Friday, yet as long as price holds below 1.5770, the downward potential will remain intact.

Support levels: 1.5690 1.5650 1.5610

Resistance levels: 1.5730 1.5770 1.5830

USD/JPY Current price: 115.62

USD/JPY trades flat on the day, hovering above the 115.50 price zone, again having found buyers on approaches to the 100 SMA in the hourly chart, now acting as immediate intraday support at 115.10. The consolidative range shrank for third day in a row, but as in the case of EUR/USD, seems investors are just taking a breath before attacking again. Momentum and RSI in the 1 and 4 hours chart hover around their midlines with a steady neutral stance: at this point, an upward acceleration through 116.00 is required to see the pair regaining the upside, while dips down to 114.90 will be considered as buying opportunities.

Support levels: 115.50 115.10 114.90

Resistance levels: 115.90 116.25 116.60

AUD/USD Current price: 0.8716

After posting a daily high of 0.8763, the AUD/USD finally gave up, erasing most of its intraday gains as gold turned also down on the day. The pair however remains above the 0.8700 figure, with the 1 hour chart presenting a neutral stance, as per indicators horizontal around their midlines. In the 4 hours chart however, price has managed to bounce from a still bullish 20 SMA, whilst indicators maintain a bullish bias above their midlines. In this last time frame, 200 EMA offers next strong resistance in the 0.8780 price zone, with a clear break above opening doors for an upward continuation beyond the 0.8800 figure.

Support levels: 0.8690 0.8660 0.8620

Resistance levels: 0.8730 0.8780 0.8825