Gold Analysis – January 8, 2015

Gold prices fell during the trading session on Wednesday (7/1) after the dollar hit a 92 for the first time since last 10 years. US ADP Employment released the results are very encouraging US stock market rebounded from a sharp drop earlier in the week.

Spot gold prices closed down by $ 7.90 or 0.65% ending at $ 1,211.10 per troy ounce, having previously had traded as high as $ 1,218.680 and as low as $ 1,208.920.

While gold futures contract in February as a most-active contract is currently finishing the trading session on Wednesday (7/1) with a loss of $ 8.70 or 0.7% end at $ 1,210.70 an ounce on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Losses on the gold price seems stuck during overnight trading session, it is a little bit helped as crude oil prices traded up overnight try.

Oil market, Crude Oil (February) closed up by 72 cents, or 1.5%, ending at the level of $ 78.65 a barrel, after briefly fell to $ 46.93 per barrel. Brent Crude (February) closed up 0.1%, or about 5 cents, ending at $ 51.15 a barrel.

Fundamental Analysis
Minutes of FOMC meeting, parliament confirms that the Fed will raise interest rates at a meeting next April. This prompted the dollar continues to soar sharply and held above the level of 92.

Trading session earlier this year, gold will trade nampkanya balanced between gains and losses in the range of $ 1,226.00 – 1,170.00. Sentiment equally strong between the ECB QE program and the increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate is a factor that will bring the price of gold to survive within that range.

ECB asset purchase program (QE) is expected to be released on January 22, in conjunction with the Central Bank’s interest rate announcement. The decision is likely to bring the gold and dollar alike receive safe-haven flows (both up).
While the US interest rate decision will bring the dollar strengthened along with global stock markets. While gold will decline due to loss-safe-haven flows.

Today the market will be focused on meeting the Bank of England (BOE) pad at 19:00 GMT + 7 data and US Unemployment Claims at 20:30 GMT + 7.

Technical Analysis

Technically, strengthening that occurred on hold because the market has seen optimism the Fed to raise interest rates of the Central Bank in April. Because gold is not able to move past $ 1,223.10 yesterday’s highs, then gold is expected to begin corrected at least in the range of $ 1,207.00. if this level is successfully penetrated then, gold has the potential return is below $ 1,200.00 per troy ounce.

In the long term, the negative trend is still visible on the gold price. In the long-term technical pattern remains indicate the possibility of gold in the range of $ 984 per troy ounce – at least in the coming years.

In the long-term trend based on the monthly chart, has formed a triangle pattern – where if price able to test and break above $ 1,180.00 supports the gold potential to continue to decline until the long-term target in the range of $ 926.70 – $ 984.00, at least in the coming year. Sharp decline may occur in momentums US rate hike next.