EUR/USD Current price: 1.1384
An upward surprise in US inflation data for September, helped the American dollar to recover ground this Thursday, particularly against the EUR, which fell back below the 1.1400 level after trading as high as 1.1494. There were no relevant macroeconomic news in Europe, and the EUR/USD pair traded higher during the first half of the day, amid a sharp recovery in Asian and European equities. But the pair suffered a first hit from Nowotny, from the ECB, who pledged for the use of an additional set of measures in order to achieve the 2.0% inflation target. Then, the US released positive US data, referred to employment and inflation, reviving speculation the FED may raise rates before the year end. The consumer price index decreased by 0.2% as expected, remaining unchanged from a year before. The YoY ex food and energy reading however, resulted at 1.9%, above expectations of 1.8%, while the weekly unemployment claims decreased to 255K last week, against 270K expected.
The pair fell down to 1.1362 and has been unable to sustain gains beyond the 1.1400 level afterwards, ending the day around the 1.1380 level. Given that the ECB will have its monthly economic meeting next week, and there are some market talks on a possible QE extension, rallies may remain capped. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now below the 20 and 100 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators are barely bouncing from oversold levels, maintaining the risk towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, however, and despite the price is below its 20 SMA, the pair presents a limited downward potential, given that the technical indicators have turned flat around their mid-lines after correcting extreme overbought readings.
Support levels: 1.1350 1.1310 1.1280
Resistance levels: 1.1420 1.1460 1.1500
EUR/JPY Current price: 135.14
The Japanese yen soared during the past Asian session, leading to a sharp decline in the EUR/JPY pair that later accelerated amid EUR self weakness. The pair fell down to 134.78 intraday, recovering some ground during the American afternoon, as the Yen eased following better-than-expected US data. Nevertheless, the pair points to close the day well below its 100 SMA after holding above it for over a week, now around 136.00 and a key resistance for the upcoming hours. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest turning south far above the current price. In the same chart, the technical indicators are bouncing from extreme oversold levels, suggesting the pair may correct higher during the upcoming hours. In the 4 hours chart, the price is currently holding above its 100 and 200 SMAs, both in a 10 pips range and lacking directional strength, whilst the technical indicators are posting also some limited bounces well below their mid-lines. A break below the mentioned daily low however, should deny the possibility of an upward corrective move and favor a continued decline towards the 133.30 price zone.
Support levels: 134.70 134.30 133.85
Resistance levels: 135.40 136.00 136.50
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5482
The British Pound extended further its advance against its American rival, reaching a daily high of 1.5508, and holding a few pips below it by the end of the day. . With no macroeconomic events scheduled in the UK, the pair has been showing little directional strength until the release of US data, which sent the pair down to 1.5414, from where the pair quickly recovered back towards its daily highs. The overall bullish tone in the pair remains in place as the pair is also back above the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily decline at 1.5445, the immediate support for the upcoming hours. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are posting some limited advances above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is more constructive, given that the Momentum indicator heads sharply higher well above its mid-line, whilst the RSI is regaining its upward tone near overbought levels, in line with a continued advance, particularly on a price acceleration above the mentioned daily high.
Support levels: 1.5445 1.5410 1.5375
Resistance levels: 1.5515 1.5560 1.5600
USD/JPY Current price: 118.74
The USD/JPY pair fell down to 118.05, extending its decline for a third day in a row, on technical selling and despite the strong upward momentum in Asian and European stocks. The pair has been trading in quite a limited range since late August, with buying interest surging on dips towards the 119.00 level. But the pair broke below this last late Thursday on risk aversion, spooking buyers and leading to a continued decline. Better-than-expected US data however, interrupted the bearish rally of the pair, leading to an intraday recovery up to the current 118.70 price zone. Short term, the 1 hour chart suggest the ongoing recovery may extend, given that the technical indicators continue heading higher from oversold levels, but the upside seems limited, as the mentioned indicators remain well below their mid-lines, whilst the moving averages have turned lower well above the current level. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are also aiming higher from extreme oversold levels, but remain well below their mid-lines. Above 119.00, the pair can extend up to 119.35, but if selling interest surges around this last, the risk will turn back lower, looking then for a retest of the 118.00/10 price zone.
Support levels: 118.55 118.10 117.70
Resistance levels: 119.00 119.35 119.70
AUD/USD Current price: 0.7336
The AUD/USD pair sunk down to a daily low of 0.7265 following the release of US data, already under pressure after tepid Australian employment data for September, showing that employment fell by 5,100 from August, compared with a median forecast of a 9,600 new jobs increase. The unemployment rate dropped to 6.2%, but as a consequence of a decrease in the participation rate that fell to 64.9%. The pair however, managed to bounce from the mentioned low and recover well above the 0.7300 level, reflecting strong buying interest waiting for dips. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now a few pips above a mild bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength above their mid-lines, all of which limits the downside, but suggest no upward momentum at the time being. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA offers an immediate support around 0.7290, whilst the technical indicators stand above their mid-lines, but also unable to suggest a clear upcoming direction.
Support levels: 0.7290 0.7250 0.7220
Resistance levels: 0.7300 0.7350 0.7390